Population Projection Methodology
Florida Statutes requires counties and municipalities to periodically prepare an evaluation of
their comprehensive plans, and the evaluation and appraisal report EAR) legislation
contains certain population-related requirements. Sections 163.3191(2), 2)(a), and 2)(i),
F.S., require:
2) The report shall present an evaluation and assessment of the
comprehensive plan and shall contain appropriate statements to update the
comprehensive plan, including, but not limited to words, maps, illustrations,
or other media related to:
2)(a) Population growth and changes in land area, including
annexation, since the adoption of the original plan or the most recent
update amendments.
2)(i) The identification of any actions or corrective measures... shall
include, as appropriate, new population projections.
The discussion below provides options for Pinellas County municipalities to use in order to
comply with statutory population assessment requirements.
Data Sources
Four data sources have been employed to develop the methodology: 1. the United States
Census from 1990 and 2000; 2. the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and
Business Research BEBR) 2005 population estimates and BEBR Florida Statistical
Abstract 2005, and 3. Pinellas County Planning Department permanent" and resident"
population projections.
Facts and Assumptions
While the Census and BEBR produce county estimates and projections, neither entity
produces them for municipalities. And, while Pinellas County produces estimates by census
tracts and traffic analysis zones TAZs), none are currently produced for county
municipalities. Thus, because municipal projections are currently lacking, certain facts were
determined and assumptions made in order to calculate them.
Facts
First, many of the 24 municipalities in the county are landlocked and it is common for
jurisdictions to have contiguous borders. As a result, only about half of the municipalities
have the ability to annex unincorporated county land that would result in significant
population increases.